ErrorsThese forecasts may have inaccuracies. Spot a bug or odd result? Report it.
Interactive election forecast
2026 U.S. Forecast
Probabilistic ratings, win probabilities, and seat projections for every Governor, Senate, and House race — on a live map, a demographic swingometer that re-runs all three chambers, and race-by-race detail.
Loading the latest forecast run…
About this forecast
How the 2026 ElectIndex forecast works
The ElectIndex forecast estimates the outcome of every 2026 race for the U.S. House of Representatives, the Senate, and the states electing governors. Each result is a probability, not a prediction — a way to see the full range of plausible outcomes and the uncertainty behind them.
Every race combines two ingredients. A fundamentals estimate captures what we know before the polls — the seat's partisan lean, incumbency, candidate fundraising, and the demographic makeup of the electorate. A polling average captures what voters are telling pollsters right now. The model weights the two by how much quality polling a race has accumulated, so early on the fundamentals carry most of the signal and the polls take over as Election Day nears.
Sitting on top of every race is the national environment — generic-ballot polling, presidential approval, and a basket of economic indicators from the Federal Reserve. When the environment shifts, every race moves with it, and the three chambers are simulated together, so a strong night for one party tends to carry across the board.
A probability measures uncertainty, not destiny. A candidate with a 70% chance still loses about three times in ten — treat the number like a weather forecast. The Swingometer lets you test that uncertainty yourself by reshaping the electorate and watching the seat totals respond.
Three chambers
Win probabilities and seat projections for the U.S. House, Senate, and governorships, updated as new data lands.
Swingometer
Dial demographic groups up or down and watch all three chambers recompute live.
Race pages
Every contest broken down: polling average, fundamentals, the blend, and a county-level projection.
Open data
No paywall. Download the underlying CSVs and read the full methodology, equations and all.