Nothing on ElectIndex is legal, financial, investment, tax, accounting, professional, campaign, lobbying, betting, or voting advice. Our forecasts, ratings, articles, and visualizations are commentary and analysis. You are responsible for your own decisions and should consult a qualified professional and verify important information independently before acting.

A forecast is a statement of probability, not a prediction of certain outcomes. A candidate or party shown as favored can lose, and an outcome given a low probability can still happen — that is the nature of probability, not an error. Probabilities, margins, seat estimates, and ranges express uncertainty and will change as new data arrives. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.

Our models draw on third-party and public data — including polls, the FEC, FRED, the U.S. Census, and precinct and redistricting sources — that we do not control and that may be incomplete, delayed, revised, or inaccurate. Models also rely on assumptions, transformations, and judgment calls that reasonable analysts may disagree with. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, methodology, or fitness for any purpose of any number on the Site.

The Site and all forecasts, data, downloads, and tools are provided “as is” and “as available,” without warranties of any kind to the fullest extent permitted by law. To the fullest extent permitted by law, ElectIndex is not liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the Site. See the limitation-of-liability and disclaimer sections of our Terms of Service.

ElectIndex is not a betting service and is not affiliated with any prediction market, sportsbook, or wagering platform. Do not use the Site as a basis for gambling or wagering decisions. Election betting is restricted or illegal in many jurisdictions; you are solely responsible for complying with the laws that apply to you.

ElectIndex publishes its own forecasts and analysis. From time to time we may also mention or share polls, fundraisers, and projects run by others. Here is the standard we hold those to.

We never collect money for anyone else. The only payments ElectIndex accepts are memberships and donations to ElectIndex itself, through our own checkout on electindex.com. We do not collect, hold, or forward money on behalf of third parties, and we do not ask you to give to us through a crowdfunding page or a personal payment app.

We verify before we promote. Before we promote a third-party poll or fundraiser, we expect to be able to confirm:

• who is running it — an identifiable organizer we have been in direct contact with;
• for a poll, who is fielding it — a named pollster with a public track record;
• how it will be conducted — sample size, survey mode, field dates, and when results will be released;
• where the money goes — for example, a quote or invoice from the pollster the funds will pay.

If we cannot verify these, we will not promote it. When we fund a poll ourselves, we contract with and pay the pollster directly rather than sending money through an intermediary.

Sharing is not an endorsement. Mentioning or linking to a third-party project does not mean we guarantee it, control it, or are responsible for it. We will identify third-party polls and fundraisers as not conducted by ElectIndex when we share them. Please do your own research before contributing to anything.

If something goes wrong, we will say so. If we learn that something we shared was misleading or not genuine, we will tell our readers what we know as promptly as we can.

Contributions to third-party projects are governed by our Terms of Service. Concerns about something we shared? Email [email protected].

The Site may link to or embed third-party content we do not control and are not responsible for. We may change, correct, or remove forecasts, data, and features at any time without notice. We may update this Disclaimer; the “Last updated” date reflects the latest revision. Questions? Email [email protected].

ElectIndex is an independent research publication. We do not accept funding from political campaigns, political parties, or advocacy groups. Advertising, subscriptions, and sponsorships do not influence our forecasts, editorial decisions, or models.

Forecasts and analyses published on electindex.com are based on data, statistical methods, and modeling assumptions. While we strive for accuracy and transparency, all forecasts involve uncertainty and should not be read as guarantees or endorsements.

ElectIndex operates with full editorial independence. Our forecasts, analyses, and editorial decisions are made solely by our staff and are not subject to influence, review, or approval by any advertiser, sponsor, donor, political party, campaign, or outside organization.

We do not accept payment for favorable coverage, adjusted forecasts, or placement of any kind. Revenue from advertising, subscriptions, and donations does not affect what we cover, how we model elections, or what we publish. Sponsors and advertisers are clearly labeled and have no part in our editorial or analytical work.

Our models and analyses are driven entirely by data, statistical methods, and documented assumptions — not by the personal political opinions of any staff member. We hold ourselves to the same standard regardless of which party or candidate a result favors. When we make errors, we correct them promptly and openly.

Questions about our editorial standards, or a concern to report? Email [email protected].