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A forecast is a statement of probability, not a prediction of certain outcomes. A candidate or party shown as favored can lose, and an outcome given a low probability can still happen — that is the nature of probability, not an error. Probabilities, margins, seat estimates, and ranges express uncertainty and will change as new data arrives. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.

Our models draw on third-party and public data — including polls, the FEC, FRED, the U.S. Census, and precinct and redistricting sources — that we do not control and that may be incomplete, delayed, revised, or inaccurate. Models also rely on assumptions, transformations, and judgment calls that reasonable analysts may disagree with. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, methodology, or fitness for any purpose of any number on the Site.

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Forecasts and analyses published on electindex.com are based on data, statistical methods, and modeling assumptions. While we strive for accuracy and transparency, all forecasts involve uncertainty and should not be read as guarantees or endorsements.

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We do not accept payment for favorable coverage, adjusted forecasts, or placement of any kind. Revenue from advertising, subscriptions, and donations does not affect what we cover, how we model elections, or what we publish. Sponsors and advertisers are clearly labeled and have no part in our editorial or analytical work.

Our models and analyses are driven entirely by data, statistical methods, and documented assumptions — not by the personal political opinions of any staff member. We hold ourselves to the same standard regardless of which party or candidate a result favors. When we make errors, we correct them promptly and openly.

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