Why Texas Might Flip Blue

Introduction

The 2026 Texas Senate race is Democrats’ best chance to win a U.S. Senate seat in Texas in forty years. Initially, the Democratic primary was expected to be between a two-person horse race between former Rep. Colin Allred and State Rep. James Talarico, but Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s late entry prompted Allred to withdraw, turning it into a Crockett-Talarico contest. Talarico eventually won the nomination by uniting progressive and moderate Democrats. Meanwhile, Republican incumbent Senator John Cornyn lost in a bruising primary runoff to Attorney General Ken Paxton, leaving the GOP fractured after months of infighting. Given Texas’s increasing competitiveness, Paxton’s candidate vulnerabilities, and Talarico’s broad appeal, this race is one of the Democrats’ strongest opportunities to win in Texas on the federal level in decades. Talarico is now positioned to potentially become the first Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Texas since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.